Sunday, December 21, 2014

Where is Rueben Randle and the other 2014 recievers?

After 14 games in 2014 Reuben Randle has been targeted 108 times with 59 catches, he has 648 yards receiving and 161 yards of that are YAC. Randles longest is 27 yards with 6 catches for 20 or more. While Preston Parker has 31 catches, targeted 50 times, 366 yards, 103 of them YAC. His longest is 42, average is 11.8 with 4 catches going for 20 or more.

Lets do some math, Randle catches the ball a shade over 54% of the time, Parker catches the ball 62% of the time. Parkers YAC is a shade over 28% of his total yards receiving, while Randles YAC is a shade under 25% of his total yardage.

Here is my conundrum, Randle is faster and taller but has a lower average yards per catch, doesnt catch the ball as well when targeted and his YAC is a bit less than Parker. Before I looked all this up, I thought Parker was faster, but no, his 40 yard times are 4.59 to 4.65 while Randle range is 4.43 to 4.55.

Parker seems to find space, which is the job of a slot receiver. Sometimes Parkers seems to get really good separation. Randle often gets just enough separation to make the catch and as he gets tackled lunges for more yardage, Randle doesnt seem to be able to get turned upfield after the catch, nor does he get in back of the cornerback covering him. For context Victor Cruz has burned good corners with the double move on the outside, going for major yardage. Cruz ran a 4.57 40 yard dash, hes slower than Randle.

Additionally Randle does well with the come back route for a first down along the sideline, or the quick slant, or the crossing route over the middle. Apparently hes lacking what it takes to be used in other routes, I think the Giants know this and use him accordingly.

Its not exactly fair to compare Parker who plays a lot of slot to Randle who is always going up against a teams #1 or #2 corner on the outside. But there is a marked difference in production efficiency between the two players.

If I'm Jerry Resse, and I'm looking to 2015 (Assuming Cruz is 100%) I want a legit #1 to play opposite Odell Beckham Jr, though Victor Cruz can be very effective in the slot, so can OBJlll. Both Cruz and Beckham can play the outside or the inside, and in my minds eye, if I want to enjoy Odell & Victor tearing it up in 2015, they need to play with a legit outside receiver.

I love the potential of Corey Washington, but for the sake of this discussion, hes not ready. The 2015 draft will have 5 really good Tackles going early, so that may be BPA and needs aligning. I can see picking another OL and a DL in the next 2 rounds, then a TE. IF this pans out a top potential #1 outside receiver to replace Randle is beyond the reach of my General Manager hands. If this is the way it plays out, we're stuck with Randle, hoping Washington develops so the combination of the 2 is enough to keep defenses guessing who is getting the ball, Beckham, Cruz, Randle or Washington.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Early 2012 Giants signings

Just to catch up, the Giants have signed Domemik Hixon whose 4.34 speed might replace Mario Manninghams 4.38 speed on those deep routes. Hixon has less than 900 yards receiving over 5 years due to injury. Cornerbacks Terrel Thomos, Justin Tryon, Michael Coe are all signed, Tryon gives the Giants quality depth with his 3 years experience starting at Corner & Nickel, Justin can cover the outside and slot receiver and is a proven top rated gunner on specials. Coe has done much in 4 previous years, but played well in spurts, playing well after Tryon went down to injury, with some good solo tackles and pass defenses, including a batted ball before being injured. If healthy Terrel Thomas, on paper, should be a great tackler and a dominating corner, 4 or 5 picks and a pro bowl slot may be in the offering. The Giants have also signed 4 year CB Antwuan Molden adding more depth and experience to the secondary that now toutes 7 players, most teams keep 5 or 6. Terrel Thomas, Prince Amukamare, Cory Webster, Justin Tryon, Michael Coe, Antwuan Molden, Brandon Bing (Rutgers).

Sean Locklear, a 31 year old Utility O Lineman was signed by the Giants, Locklear has played both tackle position and guard, hes expected to compete with Kareem McKenzie for the right tackle spot, Kareem will be 33 this year. Last years 4th round pick James Brewer can also play right tackle, and Jim Cordle, drafted last year played center for Ohio State, was used as a jumbo tight end during the playoff run.

The Giants have tried to get younger on the O Line the last 2 years and only the starting tackles from last year are over 29 years of age. Both Kevin Boothe and Mitch Petrus showed promise last year. On the Depth chart: Chris White is a 7 year veteran undersized guard at 6'2" 303 pnds, Selvish Capers at 6'5" 315 pnds was a rookie last year, James Brewer is 6'6" and a monstrous 330 pnds. Brewer started 21 games at right tackle at Indiana and 2010 was part of the O line that allowed a sack per game, ranking them 14th nationally.

Tight end: Both Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard suffered injuries and can be expected to miss significant playing time, probably on the PUP list or worse. The Giants have already made a good move in signing Martellus Bennet. Bennet played 4 years in Dallas stuck on the depth chart behind Jason Witten. Bennet is a good blocker, making 85 catches for 846 yards in 4 years at Dallas. Bennet is sized like Ballard, 6'6" and 270 pnds fitting right in with TE coach Mike Pope's prototype TE.

A good team should draft the best player available, so just because the Giants have 7 corners on the roster doesn't mean they won't take a corner.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

NFC title game, 2 great defenses

Heres a thought, lets assume because its wet both the 49ers and the Giants want to run the ball. And lets further assume both defenses are slowing if not stopping the run. And lets assume that Alex Smith, who has a reputation as a game manager, showed his growth against the Saints by throwing strikes and orchestrating 2 drives, leading his team to 2 TD's. Lets assume those 2 drives are the improved Alex Smith, and the Giants will face that improved Alex Smith.

So both defenses have stopped the run, and the 2 quarterbacks now have to throw the ball to win the game. Who do you think can carry his team to victory?

Thats why I have changed my view of this game, I was thinking GIants by 3, I'm now thinking GIants by 5.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

49ers star TE is scary good.

Vernon Davis is 6'3", 250 pounds and runs a 4.38 40 yard dash. Vernon Davis is a second faster than Victor Cruz. The Giants defensive backs have some decent speed: Corey Webster: 4.5, Aaron Ross: 4.41, Antrel Rolle: 4.48, Prince Amukamara ran a 4.43 at the combine, but squeaked out a 4.38 on his proday. Matching up with Davis's speed is going to be an issue, bumping Davis in the first 5 yards will be crucial. The Giants have been great at defending Tight Ends the last 4 weeks, Chase Blackburn has been a key factor in the middle, but don't expect Blackburn (4.69) to run with Davis.

Against the Saints Davis benefited from some inside out technique by 2 DB's, Davis's speed means he can run by 2 DB's playing inside out. Downfield, bracketing Davis with 2 players is vital in making sure DAvis gets tackled after he makes his catch.

On shorter timing routes Davis may see a variety of double teams. The Giants covered these routes well in the Green Bay game and Perry Fewells schemes have done well in defending the middle the last 4 games.

Look to see Blackburn bump Davis and cover a crossing route in an underneath zone, with help from from a safety, as Davis runs thru the zone, Blackburn might hand off Davis to the next player in the zone. The Giants have been doing this well since Blackburns return, they've also down it with man and zone in the back end. Then to mix things up rookie safety Tyler Sash will play on run downs, he's a good box type safety who has a nose for the ball, 13 picks and 13 pass defenses in college.

The Giants defense is going to have to play lights out to slow down Vernon Davis, I can see Fewell mixing things up to keep Davis under control and it means QB Alex Smith will have to avoid the rush while deciphering the varying defensive schemes.

Monday, January 16, 2012

In the last 4 games, Giants have better offense and defense

The Giants score an average of 30.25 points per game over the last 4 games, while the 49ers have averaged 27.25. NYG have scored 121 pts vs the 49ers 109 over 4 games. While on defense the Giants allow 12 points and the 49ers average 19.75 pts per game. NYG defense has allowed 48 over 4 games, 49ers allowed 79 pts over 4 games.

But for some reason Vegas wants to pick the 49ers?

Looking at the above numbers, the offensive averages are close, but the defensive numbers are glaringly different, nearly 8 points. Before the Atlanta game I had no clue the Giants defense would blank Atlanta, and I thought the Giants would beat Green Bay by 6, not 17. So on Monday afternoon, I'm picking the Giants by 8 points.

Edited to correct a math error.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Fewell pumps defense

Rumors are Perry Fewell told his defense that the Green Bay offense would come out on an emotional high and look to strike quick.

Keyshon Johnson picks the Gmen 29-21, I think he Gmen win by 6 points.

9 of Green Bays wins were one possession games.

Dont expect Aaron Rodgers to throw a pick.

Bradshaw and Jacobs must run for 130+ to win.

Secondary must makes plays on deep throws. Pass rush must dictate.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Giants: There is the potential to crush the Pack

Keys to the game, Giants run the ball, Win the battle of turnovers, and defense. Do these 3 things and the Giants win by 6 or more.

Giants are vastly improved since week 13, Packers aren't. In 9 of 16 games the Pack won a one possession game, the 10th they lost, and the remaining 6 games the Pack won by more than one possession.

The way KC beat GB is more important than that KC won. GB went 4 for 16 converting 3rd downs, KC defended the middle and the long ball while rushing the QB. At this point in time the Giants do all of these things better than KC did.

The Giants pass rush is better than the GB O line, even with 2 starters returning for GB. The Giants O line is better than the GB pass rush.

GB is +19 on turnovers, they play a risky secondary technique that yields either a pick for GB or a big play for the opposition. GB DB's cheat up on the WR, not the Tampa 2 style, so the GB Secondary is vulnerable to double moves and 2 WR's crossing/brush off the DB's....

GB has to prepare for the #1 pass rush, a secondary that is playing not as a bottom of the barrel defense, but a top 5 unit. GB also has to defend one of the best WR trios in the league and if the TE's perform, defend against 3 TE's. The Giants will run plays against Clay Matthews, and then do something off of that. Look at the 4th quarter, a physical run game will have the Pack tired, on their heels and it may well be the Giants pad the lead.

Giants rush on punts and kicks has been getting closer the last 4 weeks, if GB keeps another blocker in, they're vulnerable to a big return.

I'm picking the Giants to win, if the Giants run the ball, dont turn the ball over and play Defense like they have, this can be an ugly game for the Packers scoring only 17 points. If the Giants specials give us a TD, and the secondary picks Rodgers... don't be surprised by 31-14 Gmen.

I also think the Giants can survive Eli throwing a pick 6, still winning, the score will be close.