Thursday, November 3, 2011

Giants vs Pats week 8: Tom Brady, whats in your wallet?

I more than like the Gmens chances on Sunday. In fact I think the Pats cant blow us out, and we can blow them out. I think Vegas is gong to lose money on the 8 points they're giving, heres why:

Matchups:


I like our passing game vs the Pats passing defense. The Pats will be undermanned trying to cover our receivers if Coach brings in Barden to play. The Pats are near last against the pass, with Ballard and maybe Barden out of the slot, the Pats will be hard pressed to cover these 2, and with Cruz and Manningham going deep the Pats will have a choice, get beat over the middle or get beat deep.
I expect Billichek to keep 9 in the box on the Giants, but he has 2 choices,  1) Attack the Giants strength, the passing game with nickel and dime packages, which takes the risk of unleashing the Giants running game, or 2) leave 9 in the box to stop the run like everyone else has, except we know that the O Line pass protects real good, so Eli has lots of time to throw the deep strike.
I'm dreaming about a 4 receiver set,  Nicks, Barden, Cruz and Manningham , the Pats would have to pick their poison. But I doubt we'll see that.

I like Ross and Webster, and if Amukamara plays, our nickel might become what Perry Fewell dreams the 4-2-5 should be about, pressure on the quarterback and  bend but dont break secondary. The Pats have no true deep threat, with Amukamara, Ross, Webster on the field, with Phillips and Rolle over the top, those match ups are in our favor and the 4-2-5 comes alive. The longer developing plays for deep throws means the Pats pass protection has to give Brady time, I dont see that happening reliably.

Both teams are going to try and get pressure on the quarterback,  the Giants defensive line is better than the Pats O Line, and the Giants O Line knows how to pass protect. The Pats haven't been the scoring juggernaut during the 2 previous games as they have been earlier in the season. Long gone are the days of 450 yards passing. Does Dallas and Pittsburgh have really great defenses? Well, not really. Or is the Pats Offense off kilter?

I'm assuming Hicks and Bradshaw will not play, and the Prince and Barden will play, if so I like the Giants chances very much. If Brandon Jacobs delivers as promised that only is more bad news for the Patriots. Without the Prince, Antrell Rolle will continue as the nickel back and he has not worked with Aaron Ross well in that regard. Rolle is a fine safety and the Giants will do well to play the Prince as the nickel back.

If the personal moves work out for the good, we win by 10 or 14 points, If not, I dont see the Giants doing anything worse than losing by 3 points. I don't see the Pats covering 8 points, no way.

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